How to Bet the NBA Rookie of the Year

This is how to bet the NBA Rookie of the Year.

Key Points

– Build a profile before you bet the NBA Rookie of the Year.

– There are key statistics that can help bettors bet the NBA Rookie of the Year.

How to Bet the NBA Rookie of the Year

The Eddie Gottlieb Trophy is given annually to the NBA's top rookie. Each season, bettors love betting sports futures like the NBA Rookie of the Year (ROTY), one of the league's most important individual awards.

Bettors love the ROTY award. The payouts can be substantial and the odds are excellent, especially early. But, who qualifies as the best rookie? Does the "best" rookie ever even receive the award?

That is a great question for NBA bettors. How does one pick the top newcomer in a particular class? Taking a look at the past and then creating a profile for the ideal ROTY pick are the first steps in learning how to bet the NBA Rookie of the Year.

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Past History

As you build your historical profile, start with the most recent ROTY award recipients. Then, you can look at a number of characteristics that those winners have in common.

Bettors should look for trends among the previous winners when placing wagers on the NBA Rookie of the Year. They should also look for a reputable online sportsbook where they can place their bets. The previous ten ROTY winners are displayed below.

● 2022: Scottie Barnes, Toronto

● 2021: LaMelo Ball, Charlotte

● 2020: Ja Morant, Memphis

● 2019: Luka Doncic, Dallas

● 2018: Ben Simmons, Philadelphia

● 2017: Malcolm Brogdon, Milwaukee

● 2016: Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota

● 2015: Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota

● 2014: Michael Carter-Williams, Philadelphia

● 2013: Damian Lillard, Portland

NBA Rookie of the Year Betting Trends

Scoring is important in the race for the top rookie. Points are king when it comes to NBA Rookie of the Year betting. Bettors should opt for first-year players that score a lot of points. This can also help when betting player props during the season.

Since LeBron James in 2004, Rookie of the Year winners—all but one—averaged at least 15 points per game. Only Brogdon failed to achieve this mark.

The previous 19 ROTY award winners have averaged 17.6 points per game. In 13 of the previous 20 seasons, the rookie with the most points in a given class won the ROTY award.

Predicting a rookie's points per game average should be the first thing you look at before you bet the NBA Rookie of the Year. If candidates can average at least 15 points per game, they stand a good chance of winning the award.

If a player leads all NBA rookie scorers, their chances are higher. When in doubt, choose candidates that score more points.

A Better Measure Is PRA

Just because a rookie leads his team or the league in scoring does not automatically make him the Rookie of the Year. Four of the previous five ROTY winners were not the overall leading scorer among rookies.

A rookie's PRA, or points plus rebounds plus assists, plays a significant role in determining whether or not he has a shot at the award. Over the past 20 seasons, 65 percent of ROTY winners have been the leading rookie scorer. However, 83 percent of ROTY winners (15 of 18) have had the highest PRA numbers.

That number would likely be higher if guys like Zion Williamson and Joel Embiid hadn’t been injured in their rookie seasons.

Since James, every ROTY with the exception of two has had at least a PRA of at least 25. The last five winners of the award averaged 17.2, 6.6 rebounds, and 6.2 assists. That’s a PRA of 30.

Efficiency and Defense Are Not Important

Betting on the NBA Rookie of the Year is not about intangibles, in contrast to some other sports. It doesn't matter if a rookie isn’t very good on defense. Even if he has poor shooting skills, it is mostly irrelevant.

Emeka Okafor won the ROTY in 2005, largely because of his excellence on defense. Those betting March Madness in 2004 also remember his UConn team won the national championship.

Ever since that year, defense has only occasionally been significant. Another metric that hasn't really mattered in the search for ROTY is efficiency.

Only five of the previous 15 ROTYs, as determined by Box Plus-Minus numbers, were more productive than all other rookies in their class. The average finishing position in Plus-Minus was 3.6, and less than half of those 15 ROTY winners finished in the top two.

Players who play for bad teams are also not punished. This is advantageous because the top rookies in the league are frequently selected by the league's worst teams.

The teams of the previous 15 award winners averaged 32.8 victories per season. Only four ROTY winners played on a playoff team. Keep in mind as you bet the NBA Rookie of the Year that a strong candidate is frequently a good rookie on a bad team who takes on a bigger role.

Draft Position Matters

Top NBA draft picks frequently compete for ROTY. That should not be a surprise. The top draft picks from the current season should always be considered when you bet the NBA Rookie of the Year. What also matters is having a reliable online sportsbook that pays out quickly.

Only four ROTYs have been selected outside the top 10 since the 1950s: Malcolm Brogdon (No. 36), Michael Carter-Williams (No. 11), Mark Jackson (No. 18), and Jamaal Wilkes (No. 11). Only one ROTY was ever selected outside the top 18 (Brogdon), and sixty of the previous sixty-two ROTYs (96.8%) were chosen among the top 11.

This helps bettors dial in to more specific candidates. Only 13 of the 62 NBA ROTYs were chosen after the first five picks in their respective drafts. Most ROTY winners (79%) were selected in the top five.

The first three picks in the draft have produced 23 of the 34 award winners since 1990. Forty-four percent were the first overall pick. In the past 15 years, nine ROTYs have been top-3 picks and if injuries hadn't occurred, that number would have been 11.

According to past data, a player chosen in the first three picks has a very good chance of winning NBA Rookie of the Year. This is the final piece of the puzzle to bet the NBA Rookie of the Year.

The Perfect ROTY Candidate

You need a strong profile if you're going to bet the NBA Rookie of the Year. You also need an online sports betting portal where you can look up scores, stats, odds, and more.

Being on a bad team and playing poor defense are irrelevant. Focus on a top-five draft pick that will score at least 15 points per game and have a PRA of at least 25.

With your profile complete, all that's left to do is browse the betting board and make your pick.